## Monday, October 29, 2012

### Independence, independence, independence

Multiplying probabilities without any thought is a dangerous game.  Just look at this piece in Rolling Stone, referenced in this Guardian article.
...warmest May on record for the Northern Hemisphere – the 327th consecutive month in which the temperature of the entire globe exceeded the 20th-century average, the odds of which occurring by simple chance were $3.7 \times 10^{-99}$, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe.

## Tuesday, October 16, 2012

### Horse Racing and Coincidence

Just penned this to the BBC about why their piece on a jockey winning seven races in a single day quotes the wrong odds.
In your article on Richard Hughes winning seven races in a single day, you quote the odds of this event as being 10,168-1.  Whilst undoubtedly a fantastic achievement, these odds are incorrect, since they they ignore the fact that Mr Hughes raced in eight races that day.  The chances of him winning 7 out of 8 races (or more) is about 1,257-1, which is a bit more modest.  In particular, it seems fairly unlikely that someone would place a bet on the rider winning these particular seven races, and not the eighth.

## Thursday, October 11, 2012

### Fruit, Vegetables, Health and Happiness

Whilst perusing the Daily Mail today (my excuse is that it's next to the espresso machine) I saw this interesting health advice:
Forget five a day: Now scientists say you'll be healthier and happier eating seven daily portions of fruit and veg.

The phrase "scientists say" is always a red light.

## Tuesday, October 2, 2012

### Trust your instincts

As Obi Wan almost said: "Let go your conscious self and act on instinct.  Your news articles, government agencies and other organisations can deceive you, don't trust them."

My brother Andrew (@andysstudy) has been studiously following this advice since 1977, and sent me this tweet:
See below. There are 73m children (u15) in EU I find it hard to believe 1:73 goes missing every year? http://www.euronews.com/2012/10/01/has-anyone-seen-my-child/